MLB Monday best bets: Back the White Sox at a cheap price
It's a brand-new week on the diamond, and we're coming off a perfect 3-0 sweep over the weekend, earning wins on the Dodgers' team total over, the Reds-Cardinals under, and the White Sox-Brewers under.
Here's what we're rolling with Monday.
The White Sox have been a punching bag in their division, finishing with a losing record in seven of the last eight campaigns. However, the franchise has recently flipped the script, going 51-25 straight-up the last 76 games against the AL Central and a blistering 51-19 clip versus clubs with losing records.
Dallas Keuchel, Monday's scheduled starter, hasn't been dominating hitters - he's in the bottom-15 percentile in xSLG, xwOBA, xERA, and K% this season - but he is getting it done, pitching to a 7-3 record on the year and allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts.
Keuchel might be solid fade material against top-tier teams heading forward, but I like the matchup against the lowly Royals. The southpaw's allowed just three extra-base hits over 100 at-bats against current Kansas City hitters with a strikeout rate of 25%.
Back the Sox at a cheap number.
Veteran left-hander Wade Miley will toe the slab for Cincinnati in a favorable matchup. Chicago's been awful versus lefties this campaign, ranking No. 29 in the majors in batting average (.229) and dead last in OBP (.284).
The Cubs do own the third-best HR rate against southpaws in baseball, but Miley should counter, as he's just outside the top 20 in barrels per plate appearance (4.2%).
To top it off, the Reds have ripped off four straight unders when facing a right-handed starter and five consecutive as a road underdog.
Twins team total under 5.5 (-125)
Tigers right-hander Matt Manning's settled down after allowing nine runs on as many hits against the Indians in his third career start back on June 28. The 23-year-old's surrendered two or fewer earned runs in three straight bids, allowing zero home runs over that span. Manning neutralized the Twins in his last outing, giving up just a pair of knocks over five frames.
Expect more of the same tonight.
Minnesota's offense, meanwhile, has been awful versus righties in 2021, ranking No. 29 in collective batting average (.227) and No. 28 in strikeout percentage (22.4%)
I'll happily fade the Twins' offense, which has plated five or fewer runs in 10 of the last 11 games.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @Ugglas4arms.