Suns-Bucks Game 6 best bets: Offenses will run it up
The Bucks have roared back in the NBA Finals, winning three straight games to take a 3-2 lead over the Suns. Milwaukee now has an opportunity to celebrate under the confetti in front of the home crowd.
Does Phoenix have what it takes to extend the series, or will the 2020-21 season officially end Tuesday?
Here's what to expect in Game 6.
The five points Milwaukee's laying would tie for most in the series since the Suns were -5 in Game 1. The total, meanwhile, opened 223 before dropping a full point to 222, the highest of The Finals.
It's certainly warranted considering how the Bucks' offense has opened up.
After averaging 106.5 points across the first two games of the series, the Bucks have scored 120 or more in two of the last three, including a series-high 123 in Saturday's resounding road win. A unit that ranked No. 6 in the NBA during the regular season with a 1.145 offensive rating has registered a remarkable 1.203 clip over its three-game winning streak.
Phoenix dropped its first contest of the series in Game 3, after which we recommended betting the Suns -2 against the first-half spread for Game 4; they were 4-0 ATS in the first half following a loss in the postseason.
The Suns cashed their first-half spread in Game 4 but lost again, setting them up for another quick start Saturday. They raced out to a 37-21 lead in the first quarter, but it was all Milwaukee from there.
The Bucks scored 79 points across the second and third quarters in Game 5. Giannis Antetokounmpo poured in 32 for an offense that shot a blistering 50-of-87 (57.5%) from the field and recorded a series-high 21 fastbreak points. Milwaukee has also been dominant on the glass over the last three, averaging 13.7 offensive rebounds per contest.
It's tough to trust Phoenix to stop the Bucks on the road this late in the series. The Suns are 7-2-1 to the over in their last 10 playing on two days' rest and 5-1-1 to the over the last seven overall.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, has cashed 19 of the last 27 versus teams with winning records, while the over is 7-1-1 the last nine matchups between these two.
Pick: Over 222
Deandre Ayton over 0.5 steals
This prop is flying under the radar heading into Game 6. Ayton averaged just 0.6 steals during the regular season but has been superb in this department lately: He's collected at least one steal in seven of the last 10 and six total over his last four outings.
Jrue Holiday over 8.5 assists
Speaking of postseason improvement, Holiday has proved to be the missing piece for Milwaukee. The veteran floor general is tallying 8.5 assists per game in the playoffs after averaging 6.1 during the regular season.
Holiday has gone over this total in seven of his last nine for the Bucks, who have posted north of 25 assists per game over the last three.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.