CFB Week 4 best bets: Don't count out LSU's offense yet
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We shrugged off our slow start to the year with a 3-0 card last week, cashing Central Florida minus the points, SMU-North Texas over 70.5, and Pitt-Syracuse under 50.

There's plenty of volume in Week 4 with the SEC joining the fold. We'll start there with our first of many best bets for Saturday.

Mississippi State at LSU (-16.5, 56.5)

The contrarian bets here would be Mississippi State and the under. Everyone knows LSU is going to regress, particularly on offense after employing one of the best units to ever take a college football field.

However, I can't justify the total dropping from 61 all the way down to 55. The market seems to be misreading this total.

Many have spoken about how the Tigers can compensate for the loss of star power on offense; what about the defense? This unit parted ways with two first-round linebackers, a pair of second-round defensive backs, and two more draftees in the front seven. This unit will certainly be tested against Mississippi State's offense, as Stanford transfer quarterback K.J. Costello could prove deadly in Mike Leach's Air Raid system.

Don't expect massive changes for LSU's offense. The unit won't be as potent as Joe Burrow and Co. - duh - but offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger will still run at a torrid pace.

Lastly, one of the more underrated aspects here is the lack of a typical LSU home crowd. When the stadium's at full capacity, good luck to opposing offenses. A limited number of fans in attendance should be easier to navigate through.

Pick: Over 56.5

Kansas State at Oklahoma (-28 60.5)

I'll make this one short and sweet: Kansas State gave up 489 yards and 35 points to Arkansas State's offense, which was at less-than-full strength due to COVID-19. I can't wait to see what Oklahoma does to the Wildcats' defense, especially after K-State upset the Sooners last season.

I'd gladly take anything at 63 or better.

Pick: Over 60.5

Vanderbilt at Texas A&M (-30.5, 47)

Vanderbilt should have performed better in 2019. It certainly had offensive talent.

Running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn was taken in the third round of the recent draft, wide receiver and four-year contributor Kalija Lipscomb was scooped up by the Chiefs as an undrafted free agent, and tight end Jared Pinkney was an intriguing prospect but is now on the Falcons' practice squad.

All that skill and the Commodores went 3-7 against the spread and cashed seven of 10 unders. Now, they're starting over from scratch.

Vanderbilt only returned 35% of last year's offensive production heading into the offseason, the eighth-worst percentage in the country. The only thing propping the Commodores up is the fact that they brought back the fourth-most experienced defense.

Expect a boring game without many fireworks. It's not the highest total in the world, but I'm comfortable enough playing the under given Vandy's lack of identity.

Pick: Under 47

2020 record: 3-4

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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CFB Week 4 best bets: Don't count out LSU's offense yet
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