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Entering Week 3, I'm 2-3-1 on my NFL best bets. Let's see if we can kick it into high gear this weekend.
Here are our best bets for Week 3:
I like a lot of underdogs this week, and the Giants are my favorite of the bunch. I played against the 49ers last week in a bad spot, but they covered easily against the high school team known as the New York Jets. I'm going back to the well with the Giants on Sunday.
No team has been hit harder by the injury bug this year than the 49ers. The list is too long to name every player, but San Francisco is favored on the road without key starters Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Nick Bosa, and Richard Sherman, to name a few.
The Giants are 0-2, but they played hard in losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears. New York had a chance to beat Chicago on the final play and stayed even with Pittsburgh into the fourth quarter. The Giants are without star running back Saquon Barkley, but that's nothing compared to the 49ers' mash unit.
I got the Giants +4 and took them on the moneyline as well. San Francisco is simply too beat-up, and with backup quarterback Nick Mullens expected to start, I like the Giants plus the points at home.
Pick: Giants +4
This is an interesting game between the 0-2 Texans and 2-0 Steelers. The game is in Pittsburgh, yet the Steelers are laying just 4 points. The number is low because Houston's losses have come against the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens - the two best teams in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Steelers have defeated the Giants and Denver Broncos, two teams with a combined record of 0-4.
I like playing this angle in Week 3 because the public perception is that the Steelers are the much better team, and the betting percentages reflect that. As of Friday, 60% of bets and 80% of the money was backing Pittsburgh at the short number. I'm going against the public here and taking the Texans +4 in what I expect to be a tight game. Don't be surprised if the Texans spring the outright road upset.
Pick: Texans +4
The one favorite I'm betting in Week 3 is the Saints -3. When I see people on Twitter say, "I don't understand this line," that's typically a game that I want to hit. Everyone loves the Packers as underdogs this week.
This is a great bounce-back spot for the Saints after getting upset by the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night. The Packers have rolled both the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions but after two weeks, they look like two of the bottom five teams in the NFL. Remember, following the Saints' win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, they were considered the best team in the NFC. Now after one loss, the popular thinking is, "How can New Orleans be a 3-point favorite over the Packers?"
This game is shaping up to be one of the biggest Pros vs. Joes matchups of Week 3 with the public all over Green Bay. As of Friday, just 25% of bets were on New Orleans. However, a whopping 92% of the money was on the Saints, an indication that sharp bettors are laying the three points. I'll follow the money on this one and back the Saints as well.
Pick: Saints -3
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
(Betting percentages source: Sports Insights)
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.