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We're back to a game under .500 after a 1-2 record last week, though we're feeling lucky ahead of a lighter Week 12 slate. Here are my best bets for this week.
We just saw these teams two weeks ago on a Thursday night, when the Colts thrashed the Titans in a dominant 34-17 win. Yet these clubs are far closer than that score suggests, and revenge is one hell of a motivating factor ahead of their divisional rematch.
Tennessee led at halftime before two special-teams errors led to easy scores for Indianapolis and skewed the final result. Those plays also masked how easily the Titans ran on the Colts' elite run defense, which will be without star DeForest Buckner (DL) and starters Denico Autry (DL) and Bobby Okereke (LB) for Sunday's rematch.
Buckner's absence in particular is a blow to an Indy defense that needs to pressure Ryan Tannehill to keep pace. If it doesn't, the Titans are poised to settle the score. Teams playing in a revenge spot within two weeks of the initial loss are 23-8-1 against the spread in their last 32 tries, including 12-2 ATS since 2015.
Pick: Titans +3
The Raiders impressed me against the Chiefs last week in a game they really should have won. Frankly, they've impressed me all year long, and they're getting shortchanged at this number against a Falcons team that's done very little to earn respect in the betting market.
Las Vegas is 7-3 ATS this year - tied for second-best in the NFL - despite playing the third-toughest schedule in the league, per Football Outsiders. Atlanta has also played a tough slate, yet it's 4-6 ATS with zero wins against teams with winning records.
The Raiders provide mismatch nightmares for the Falcons, who have allowed the third-most receiving yards (622) and tied for the most touchdowns (eight) to opposing tight ends. If Darren Waller can make an impact early, it'll be a long day for Atlanta bettors.
Pick: Raiders -3
The Chargers have been remarkably unlucky in late-game situations this year - they've played a league-high nine games decided by one possession and are 2-5-2 ATS in those. But they're not a good football team either, as they rank outside the top 20 in PFF grades (No. 22) and DVOA (No. 24).
The Bills, meanwhile, are a top-half team by both metrics and were a Hail Mary away from a four-game win streak capped off by victories over the Seahawks and Cardinals. Their offense has been superb against subpar defenses, a description that would fit Los Angeles' unit over the last several weeks.
An extra week of rest should help Buffalo's talented but inconsistent defense prepare for Justin Herbert, who has shown star flashes but has also had rookie moments against the right defensive game plans. The Chargers are 1-12 ATS since 2008 against teams coming off a bye; expect that trend to continue Sunday.
Pick: Bills -6
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.