It's only been three months since the opening odds to win Super Bowl 56 were released, and nearly half the league has already seen its price shortened - some based purely on speculation.
That's clearly the case with the Broncos, which opened at 75-1 to win it all and are currently priced as 15-1 contenders amid swirling rumors about a potential trade for Aaron Rodgers. The disgruntled Packers quarterback has listed Denver as one of his preferred destinations, according to NBC Sports' Mike Florio, and the Broncos are the betting favorites to land him this offseason.
Denver isn't the only team that has had its odds affected by the Rodgers saga. The Raiders have seen their price adjusted from 60-1 to 45-1 despite seemingly getting worse this offseason, but they were also listed as a Rodgers destination should Green Bay move on from the reigning MVP.
Here are the updated odds to win Super Bowl 56, along with three teams to watch in the months leading up to the season:
|Kansas City Chiefs||+500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+600|
|Green Bay Packers||+800|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1100|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1400|
|New Orleans Saints||+1500|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2800|
|New England Patriots||+3000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+4500|
|Washington Football Team||+5000|
|New York Giants||+7500|
|New York Jets||+7500|
We mentioned the Broncos' price adjustment at the top, but it's worth reiterating just how big of an impact the Rodgers rumors have had on this club's price. In February, Denver was tied for the fourth-longest odds at 75-1. Now, with a similar roster but a lot more intrigue, the team's tied for the eighth-shortest price on the board.
It's not a crazy price, either, given the upside. The Broncos defense ranked 11th a year ago in yards allowed per drive, but the unit's inability to force turnovers hindered that side of the ball. So Denver spent nearly $40 million for cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby before loading up on defense in the draft.
Still, it's asking a lot to bet this price before this franchise even acquires Rodgers. If John Elway can pull it off, his side will be worth backing at a price even shorter than this, but you're better off waiting for that certainty instead of assuming major risk at this short of a price.
It's easy to get excited about the Cardinals, which added former Purdue star Rondale Moore to a receiving room already featuring DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and A.J. Green. Combine that with running backs Chase Edmonds and James Conner and possibly the league's most electric quarterback in Kyler Murray, and it's easy to talk yourself into this group.
But is that offensive firepower enough to change this team's outlook? Arizona had many of those same weapons a year ago and still finished with a below-average offense, per PFF, while its defense struggled to force turnovers or stop the run, which is a tough combination to overcome.
The Cardinals were reasonably priced at 45-1 in February. The club is overpriced now, and it likely won't take more than a few games in the league's toughest division for these odds to normalize.
Few teams have seen a bigger adjustment than the Bears, who were 50-1 back in February. I loved their odds back then, and I'm still a buyer at this price.
When these odds were first released, I said that "any quarterback upgrade this summer will tighten this price." Sure enough, after adding Andy Dalton and Justin Fields this offseason, Chicago has seen plenty of love in the betting market behind a top-10 defense and legitimate offensive upside once Fields eventually wrestles away the starting job from Dalton.
It doesn't hurt that the Packers - currently priced as the NFC North favorites - could be without their star signal-caller when the season begins, leaving the door open for the Bears to snag a top-four seed in the NFC. This price likely won't move much unless Fields wows in training camp, but if you missed the early value, it's still an ideal time to buy.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.