NFL Week 2 Line Moves: Overreaction week in full effect
Last week's column was easy, with the lines getting shaped over the course of four months. Now we get less than four days, but at least there's a data point for each team to work with.
As we head into Week 2, our goal is to identify where the big adjustments have been made based on just one game.
The rare double move! Hopefully, we don't get burned like a corner biting on a fake. The lookahead line over the summer for this game was -1.5, and the Saints' blowout win over the Packers shot this week's line it up beyond the key number of -3. That's too much of a move for my liking.
From a total standpoint, the under on 47.5 got hammered in mere hours. The Saints containing Aaron Rodgers and now getting Sam Darnold will do that, along with New Orleans' offensive metrics not quite matching the 38 points the team scored in Week 1.
It's not a major move numerically, but a full shift from -3.5 on the lookahead to -3 on the opening line and then to -2.5 mid-week is pretty significant. And it's not hard to see why that happened with this game.
The Bengals won in Week 1, and the Bears lost. However, the Bengals tied the Vikings in yards per play at home, with both teams averaging 5.4 yards. Now Zac Taylor's outfit visits a Bears team that managed 134 rushing yards against the Rams.
While quarterback play was an issue as always for Chicago in Week 1, the Bears' rushing offense fuels optimism this week. Can the Bengals do as well stopping the rush as they did against Dalvin Cook and the Vikings?
The line for this game in the summer was Rams -1.5. One team won in Week 1 and the other lost, and now the line is up over a field goal in favor of L.A., with the public buying into Matthew Stafford as he injects life into the Rams' offense.
Meanwhile, Carson Wentz actually looked alright in his new surroundings during Week 1, aside from a pair of fourth-and-1 fiascos.
It was a total horror show for Jacksonville during its lone opportunity as a road favorite this season in Week 1. Now a dreadful offensive line that forced Trevor Lawrence to throw off his back foot more than he did over three years at Clemson gets a visit from the Broncos' vaunted defense. Welcome to the league, indeed.
This number was -2.5 as recently as last week, but one game for each team was enough to force oddsmakers to move the Broncos closer to a touchdown.
This is the week's biggest move after the line reopened. The Patriots were confirmed as 3.5-point favorites on Sunday night, but everyone who watched the Jets' offensive line in Carolina immediately hammered New England, driving the spread up to -6 before some buyback on New York. Those who got the good Patriots number were likely trying to find the middle.
The league's most disappointing team in Week 1? The Atlanta Falcons. A march from +8.5 to +12.5 against the Buccaneers in Week 2 comes with that dubious tag.
Head coach Arthur Smith's debut in Atlanta didn't go how he had hoped, but this Week 2 matchup is often closer than the experts think. I'll be looking to take advantage of this line move, even if pulling the trigger against the defending champs won't feel good.
Another double move! This line moves from -3.5 to -5.5 after a rough Week 1 for the Titans on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the total moved in a way that indicates the market believes Tennessee's offense will bounce back, while the defense might not.
After the Seahawks' strong offensive showing, the total jumping from 49 to 54 shouldn't be all that surprising.
There's a move on top of a move with this game. The Ravens were 3.5-point favorites for last year's Monday night matchup, and everyone backing them felt like a fool. Since that wasn't going to happen again, the lookahead line for this contest was right around a pick'em.
The Chiefs were able to pull off a win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, while the Ravens coughed one up in Las Vegas. The market has readjusted further toward Kansas City. If you're willing to pay the "Chiefs tax," more power to you.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.