NFL Week 7 player props: If it ain't broke, don't fix it

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We warned you last week about the difference between win/loss record and unit plus/minus because we expected to lose on a pair of touchdown bets. But lo and behold, Demarcus Robinson found himself in the end zone and cashed our +400 anytime touchdown bet. Now we give the same lesson but in reverse.

Thanks to Robinson's big score, we stayed hot last week by going 6-4, with the +4.55 units netting a better gain than the recent 7-3 and 6-3 weeks. There's more than one way to cash in this game.

Kyle Pitts over 48.5 receiving yards

Guess who's back. Back again. Pittsy's back. Tell a friend.

We passed on our favorite prop - Kyle Pitts over - in London last week because his number went up due to missing Falcons receivers. It's back under 50, but the Atlanta staff has now seen the power of Pitts and should be willing to feed him the ball against the Dolphins this week. Miami can limit Matt Ryan's outside options with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones returning, which means the Falcons quarterback will be looking at Pitts again, early and often.

O.J. Howard anytime touchdown +300

Tom Brady will be searching for a security blanket in the red zone with Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown out Sunday, and Howard has slowly come back from an injury that cost him the 2020 season. He had six catches and a touchdown last week, and I'd expect the same type of production against the Bears.

Sam Darnold under 235.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones under 232.5 passing yards

A 2-for-1! We recently found success fading the Panthers' and Giants' quarterbacks. While guys like Dante Pettis and Tommy Tremble are fun options down the board, why not just go back to these QBs who are both likely to flop? Darnold looks more like his former Met-o-lands self, and Jones is missing the players who make his life easier. This game should be grim offensively, so we'll play both signal-callers to struggle against decent defenses.

Joe Burrow over 255.5 passing yards

There are two different ways this can win from a game-script standpoint, and we always like that. Either Burrow and the Bengals go shot for shot with the Ravens and take advantage of the high blitz rate that Don Martindale likes to dial up, or the Ravens jump out to a lead and Burrow spends much of the second half playing catchup. I tend to lean to the former and think the Bengals can beat the blitz, potentially with throws to the running backs for some extra yardage.

DeSean Jackson over 15.5 longest reception

We saw it in Week 1, and I think we'll again see Sean McVay let former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford launch a few more deep balls than usual. DeSean Jackson is the Rams' favorite toy in these attempts, so let's bet on them connecting on one against a bad Detroit secondary.

Chase Edmonds over 31.5 rush yards

The Cardinals should be in a position to run the clock out in the second half of this game, especially with a Thursday night showdown against Green Bay on deck. While James Conner is the traditional workhorse, I think there'll be plenty of carries to go around, and Edmonds can clear the lower total of the two.

Corey Davis under 52.5 receiving yards

This is the season's first rematch, and we cashed with the under on Davis back then by using the premise that Bill Belichick takes away your top weapon. Zach Wilson has some other choices to throw to this time around, and he'll do so to make Davis more of a decoy.

Derrick Henry under 117.5 rushing yards

The reputation of the Chiefs run defense and the obvious superpowers of Derrick Henry led me to wonder how high this number could open. Well, 117.5 is certainly up there. However, this bet has less to do with Henry and more to do with the game script.

Henry racks up his yards in the fourth quarter of close games or to close out victories. But the Chiefs will take advantage of the Titans' banged-up secondary in this matchup to give them a big enough lead that running Henry in the fourth quarter won't be optimal in a comeback attempt.

Chris Jones returning to Kansas City's defensive line should upgrade the defense, and a couple of extra stops would be enough to put Tennessee in a bad situation for how it wants to run its offense.

Jonathan Taylor over 65.5 rushing yards

On the other hand, the Colts running back gets the benefit of a good situation this week. The 49ers have suffered cluster injuries to the interior of their defensive line, while All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson is returning for Indy. That's a combination that should help the already outstanding Taylor as he looks to make life easier on Carson Wentz.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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NFL Week 7 player props: If it ain't broke, don't fix it
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