NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

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The Washington Capitals were +130 at the Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday, and it was an easy bet to make. Everything about that matchup inferred a coin flip - the two teams are tied atop the standings, but it's actually the Capitals who have the better metrics at even-strength.

Last week's moneyline projections showed Capitals-Hurricanes would be an even game. So with the contest tied 2-2, it could go either way, but getting +130 for a 50-50 win probability was always a good bet, even if the Capitals didn't get a late power-play goal and an empty-netter to clinch it.

The Hurricanes' hot start and subsequent slowdown prove why it's a good idea to always look forward in our hockey handicapping, using the information in our rearview.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to create a rating for each team. I also make adjustments for injuries to key players.

With roughly 25% of the season played, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Nov. 29:

LAST SEASON MARKET 2021-22
10% 60% 30%

We get further away from last season's advanced metrics but still need to stay in touch with them for teams we expect to get better, such as the Colorado Avalanche, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Vegas Golden Knights.

Much of that can be built into the market's assumptions about each team after their offseason changes, which was found in the regular-season point-total market. Teams like the Seattle Kraken (over/under 92.5 points), Chicago Blackhawks (91.5), and Montreal Canadiens (89.5) were assumed to be around average, despite one being an expansion team, one being at the bottom of the league, and one making the Stanley Cup Final last year. If you disagreed with any of these numbers, you had ample opportunity to bet the under on their win total, and you'd be in good shape, as they have 15, 16, and 14 points, respectively.

This season's metrics look beyond a team's record to evaluate how that team is playing, so we can see if it's trending up or down. The longer the season goes, the more it validates another team that was deemed mediocre just two months ago: the Calgary Flames. Lined at 91.5 points, they've outperformed this season to a degree of 14% above league average by my numbers. Calgary competing for the Pacific Division is no fluke, and an over bet on its point total is sitting pretty.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
NOV. 29 SEA@BUF -104/+104 SEA +106/BUF +115
VAN@MTL +113/-113 VAN +133/MTL -108
ARI@WPG +206/-206 ARI +248/WPG -196
PIT@CGY +121/-121 PIT +142/CGY -116
NOV. 30 WSH@FLA +121/-121 WSH +142/FLA -116
DET@BOS +176/-176 DET +211/BOS -169
SJS@NJD +114/-114 SJS +134/NJD -109
ARI@MIN +206/-206 ARI +248/MIN -197
CBJ@NSH +121/-121 CBJ +143/NSH -117
CAR@DAL +119/-119 CAR +140/DAL -114
ANA@LAK +133/-133 ANA +159/LAK -128
DEC. 1 PHI@NYR +134/-134 PHI +159/NYR -129
VAN@OTT -107/+107 VAN -103/OTT +126
COL@TOR +143/-143 COL +169/TOR -137
SEA@DET +108/-108 SEA +127/DET -104
VGK@ANA -140/+140 VGK -134/ANA +165
PIT@EDM +126/-126 PIT +149/EDM -121
DEC. 2 BUF@FLA +243/-243 BUF +298/FLA -232
STL@TB +139/-139 STL +164/TB -133
COL@MTL +108/-108 COL +128/MTL -103
CHI@WSH +140/-140 CHI +165/WSH -134
OTT@CAR +214/-214 OTT +259/CAR -204
SJS@NYI +131/-131 SJS +155/NYI -126
BOS@NSH -116/+116 BOS -112/NSH +137
NJD@MIN +158/-159 NJD +187/MIN -151
CBJ@DAL +153/-153 CBJ +182/DAL -147
CGY@LAK -116/+116 CGY -112/LAK +137
DEC. 3 SJS@NYR +169/-169 SJS +201/NYR -162
NJD@WPG +172/-172 NJD +205/WPG -165
VGK@ARI -139/+139 VGK -134/ARI +165
CGY@ANA -114/+114 CGY -109/ANA +134
EDM@SEA -124/+124 EDM -119/SEA +146
DEC. 4 STL@FLA +150/-150 STL +178/FLA -144
TB@BOS +115/-115 TB +135/BOS -111
MTL@NSH +121/-121 MTL +142/NSH -116
COL@OTT -120/+120 COL -115/OTT +141
BUF@CAR +194/-194 BUF +234/CAR -186
TOR@MIN -110/+110 TOR -106/MIN +130
CBJ@WSH +144/-144 CBJ +171/WSH -139
NYI@DET -102/+102 NYI +108/DET +113
CHI@NYR +142/-142 CHI +168/NYR -136
PIT@VAN +106/-106 PIT -102/VAN +124
DEC. 5 TB@PHI +105/-105 TB +124/PHI -101
SJS@CBJ -108/+108  SJS -104/CBJ +127
CHI@NYI +167/-167 CHI +199/NYI -160
TOR@WPG -102/+102 TOR +108/WPG +113
LAK@EDM +175/-175 LAK +209/EDM -168
CGY@VGK +107/-107 CGY +126/VGK -103

If you're looking at betting a game this week, refer to this chart to see whether you're truly getting value with one side or the other. New injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise, but this is a good reference point for identifying whether the side you like actually has value.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game
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